2010 Academy Awards Predictions

Tuesday, February 2nd, 2010

So the Academy Awards Nominations were announced today, and as per usual, comedies were ignored.

The biggest, although not surprising, slight is the absence of the comedies The Hangover, (500) Days of Summer, and It’s Complicated. This is why I have such trouble with the Oscars. As almost any actor will testify, comedy is much harder than drama the majority of the time. The skills that it takes to get timing down are often thought to be much more difficult, as it either succeeds, or falls flat. This is a great article on the merits of comedy and its place in the industry. So, with two of the most inventive comedies to come out in years (The  Hangover and Summer) to be ignored for the best picture nomination, the Academy continues with their prejudice towards this all important and gracious genre. Shame on the Academy.

Let’s go over five major categories:

Beavatar1 105x150 2010 Academy Awards Predictionsst Picture:

AVATAR, The Blind Side, District 9, An Education, The Hurt Locker, Inglorious Basterds, Precious, A Serious Man, Up, Up in the Air

I’m surprised that The Blind Side and A Serious Man got the nominations that The Hangover and Star Trek deserved. I think that The Blind Side came through due to its phenomenal box office gross of over $200 million and obviously all the praise and affection Sandra Bullock has garnered. My prediction for the win is going to be AVATAR, not necessarily because it is the best movie as whole,but because of what it accomplished at the box office (the new number one of all time) and the new film/computer technology.

Best Director

bigelow 2010 Academy Awards PredictionsJames Cameron (AVATAR), Kathryn Bigelow (The Hurt Locker), Jason Reitman (Up in the Air), Quentin Tarantino (Inglorious Basterds), Lee Daniels (Precious)

I don’t think that any of these come as much of a surprise. Many think that Clint Eastwood was a contender for Invictus, but I think that Reitman edged him out and is certainly building a resume here, with his second nomination in three years (First for Juno). But I think that since Bigelow has snatched up every prize, with the exception of the Board of National Review and the more commercially driven Globes, that she will beat out Cameron for her direction on The Hurt Locker.

* Fun Fact: Bigelow and Cameron used to be married. If she wins, she will be the first female ever to win this prize.

Best Actor

jeff 129x150 2010 Academy Awards PredictionsJeff Bridges (Crazy Heart), George Clooney (Up in the Air), Colin Firth ( A Single Man), Morgan Freeman (Invictus), Jeremy Renner (The Hurt Locker)

There really aren’t too many surprises here, with these five men being the most nominated of the awards season. I was surprised to see Morgan Freeman get so much love throughout the season for a movie that didn’t make much of an impression. I guess when you pair up with Clint, you’re good to go. But Jeff Bridges will take this prize home and he deserves it. The performance he gives in Crazy Heart is as good as it gets and he has the edge over Clooney because of his time in the business (and a previous four nominations with no win) and the legacy he will leave in the industry. It is his time.

Best Actress

sandy 150x150 2010 Academy Awards PredictionsSandra Bullock (The Blind Side), Helen Mirren (The Last Station), Meryl Streep (Julie & Julia), Carey Mulligan (An Education), Gabourey Sidibe (Precious)

This is probably the category that is the least predictable this season. Though they had a lot of buzz going into the awards season, the newcomers Carey Mulligan and Gabourey Sidibe have lost all momentum that put them into even being nominated. This race is between Streep and Bullock. Streep was outstanding in Julie & Julia and a lot of people feel it’s time that she won again since her last Oscar was for Sophie’s Choice in 1983. She could definitely take it. But then a lot of people think it’s time to recognize Bullock. She has been in the industry for so long and this is her first nomination. She plays a real life heroine, much like Julia Roberts did to take home the statue with Erin Brockovich (Julia Child was a celebrity chef). I’m going to predict Bullock because of the momentum she has built up over the last several awards shows. But Streep could easily pull the upset (she did tie with Bullock at the Broadcast Film Critics and also won the Globe). But Bullock got the SAG, which gives her the edge.

Best Supporting Actor

waltz3 2010 Academy Awards PredictionsChristoph Waltz (Inglorious Basterds), Woody Harrelson (The Messenger), Christopher Plummer
(The Last Station), Stanley Tucci (The Lovely Bones), Matt Damon (Invictus)

This doesn’t need much of a debate. Waltz will take the Oscar for his hilarious and simultaneously ruthless performance in Inglorious Basterds. No one can beat him. Brilliant script, brilliant performance. He was like a kid in a candy store, just chewing up that dialogue.

Best Supporting Actress

monique1 113x150 2010 Academy Awards PredictionsMo’Nique (Precious), Penelope Cruz (Nine), Vera Farmiga (Up in the Air), Anna Kendrick (Up in the Air), Maggie Gyllenhaal (Crazy Heart)

How the overrated and unlikeable Gyllenhall weaseled her way into this category for the first time is beyond me. She has not been nominated the entire season! I think she rode Bridges’ momentum and the Academy wanted to give the film another nod. The supporting actress statue goes to a newcomer a lot of times, and I think that Anna Kendrick would have stood a great chance had Mo’Nique not been her competition this year (nice to see her also break away from the horrid Twilight films and leave Stewart in the dust with her brave performance). She has taken every award thus far, and will finish with the big prize for her dramatic turn in Precious.

Any thoughts where I am wrong? Correct me=)

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